Take Back Congress - New York

Wednesday, February 01, 2006

Les Roberts is Frontrunner of Democrats in 24th District

This news is just in from the New York Liberal blog: The fundraising statistics from the period ending December 31 last year show that Les Roberts is the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. As of New Year's Eve, the Friends of Les Roberts campaign had 48,767 dollars in the bank.

How about Michael Arcuri, the Oneida County District Attorney who was, in December, widely assumed to be a strong contender for the nomination? He had just more than one-fifth of the amount raised by the Les Roberts campaign: 10,150 dollars. What can you get for ten thousand dollars these days? Not an effective campaign, that's for sure.

I'm going to borrow the following graphic from the New York Liberal people - don't tell.



Jeff Miller is shown here raising just twenty five dollars, but to be fair to Jeff, he wasn't even campaigning at the time. Yesterday, Jeff Miller bowed out of the race, leaving Les Roberts, Michael Arcuri, and two possible campaigns by Leon Koziol and Bruce Tytler.

Tytler and Koziol may be reconsidering their temptation to jump in the race at this late date, given that they would have to make up almost 50,000 dollars just to be competitive... with the figures Les Roberts had one month ago. Who knows what kind of money the Roberts campaign has gathered since the beginning of the year.

Michael Arcuri will also probably be reassessing his chances of gaining the nomination. What with his campaign victory to a new term as DA just two months ago, and a deficit of over 38,000 dollars compared to Les Roberts, Arcuri will have to work extra hard now to convince the Democratic committees of the 24th District that it is worth their while to endorse him over Roberts. Even the Oneida County Democratic Committee may now be in play.

Add to Michael Arcuri's problems that he has waited until February to really begin campaigning. Arcuri is giving a speech two days from now in Lansing, and he may well face some difficult questions from the members of the Lansing Democratic Committee gathered there.

All this confirms my earlier suspicions about the use of web presence as a good indicator of the health of a campaign. As I've pointed out on a few occasions, the Internet profile of Les Roberts easily overshadows all his Democratic rivals. Anyone who wants to take on Les Roberts now will not only have to contend with their relative poverty of funds, but also with their nearly non-existent online presence.

------

From Take Back the 24th

2 Comments:

  • I would disagree with your assessment here. Michael Arcuri hasn't actually raised any money, he just donated/loaned his campaign money from his own pocketbook. Arcuri didn't even announce his candidacy until after the filing period had ended. And even so, Les Roberts $48,000 is hardly an intimidating sum, especially compared to the well over $1 million Boehlert will have to spend.

    By Blogger The Watcher, at 12:16 PM  

  • You're right about some things when it comes to Arcuri. He didn't raise any funds, and did just take that money out of his pocket. However, he certainly did declare his interest in running as a candidate well before the filing deadline at the end of 2005.

    Arcuri's candidacy was discussed in area newspapers in December. Also, here are just a few of the online mentions of the publicity Arcuri tried to get back in 2005:

    http://newyorkliberal.com/blog/?p=5

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/12/13/132336/73

    http://dangerdemocrats.blogspot.com/2005/12/house-goldmine-for-dems.html

    There was a great deal of TALK about an Arcuri candidacy back in 2005, but apparently, nobody stepped forward to give Arcuri any donations. That wasn't the case with Les Roberts.

    The important figure of comparison is Jeff Miller's 2004 campaign. $31,000 for the entire cycle. Les Roberts beat that before 2006 had begun.

    With the strong possibility of Boehlert stepping down, and the certainty of a contentious primary battle if he doesn't, the Boehlert campaign is in real trouble, given that it's brought in just half of the amount it gathered two years ago.

    By Blogger 24 Independent, at 12:41 PM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home